18:44 BST - SPX Update

The bearish count shown in last night's update has been invalidated with the move above 1099.08, but the alternative double zig zag I showed during the course of yesterday is still on and is only invalidated above 1131.23.

SPX 10 min chart - Option 2:

This chart relates to Option 2 but is the same count for the other bearish Options, namely 1, 4 and 5, but with the degrees of the labels needing adjustment.

Here's the close up on the 1 min chart showing the move from 1065.25:

SPX 1 min chart from 1065.25:

18:24 BST - SPX Update

The stress test spike invalidated the earlier count with a very slight new high, so here's how it appears now (again, both the bearish and bullish counts are on here, dealing only with the rise from 1065.25, so please refer to last night's updates for the context):

SPX 1 min - from 1065.25:

16:20 BST - SPX Update

Here's a possible count from the 1065.25 low - the main labels relate to the bearish Options 1,2,3 and 5, while the alternative labels relate to the bullish Option 3 - please see last night's update for the larger context and invalidation points:

SPX 1 min - count from 1065.25:

13:09 BST - Spx Weekly Pitchforks

This chart might help to understand why we've had such choppy sideways movement  in recent weeks.

SPX Weekly Pitchforks:

The green pitchfork delineates the uptrend from March 2009. You can see that price obeyed the median line of the fork pretty well during the uptrend, which is what its supposed to do. However, the drop from April 2010 has taken it down to the lower line of the fork - the fact that its moved away from the median line is a sign that the trend marked by the fork may be over.

Indeed, a new red fork seems to have been established and price now seems to be oscillating above and below, but mostly below, its median line. The median line should provide resistance to price, if the fork is valid.

There's obviously a battle going on as price tries to stay within the bullish green fork but now has the bearish red fork to contend with. 

With price below the weekly moving averages shown on the chart and all of those averages, except the 50 declining, you would expect the red fork to win out. Price doesn't have to do much to break the green fork and while it can easily just ride the lower line of the green fork up, it has a lot of work to do to get back to the median line to re-assert the uptrend. 

However, the position of the indicators is such that further upward price action isn't out of the question, so the bearish case is by no means certain, though it may be encouraging to the bearish case that the RSI (14) seems to be unable to get above 50 and the CCI (144) has, so far, been unable to get above the zero line, despite some significant rallies.

This may be worth keeping an eye on.

 

22:41 BST - SPX Update

As I mentioned in the update after the close, in respect of the count on the chart of Option 3, I'm a little dubious that wave (v) of [a] is extending in the manner that the labelling suggests. So, looking at the alternatives, maybe we are forming an ending diagonal for wave (v) as shown by the dotted red line on this chart:

SPX 1 min chart - impulse up from 1 July:

The ending diagonal possibility would be eliminated if we drop below the blue dotted line since it would make the lines parallel rather than converging. If it does play out, a target area might be 1109 where this wave (v) would be about 2.618 x wave (i).

Or perhaps we completed wave [a] at 1099.46 and we are now in wave [c], in which case, a subdividing wave wouldn't look out of place. Here's a 10 min chart:

On this count, we still have to stay above 1065.25 for it to remain valid. Taking out 1056.88 would suggest that the count may be wrong, but it may just mean that wave [b] is continuing.

On this count, wave [c] would be equal in size to wave [a] at about 1146.

21:40 BST - SPX Update

On the counts that imply the rally from the 1 July low is a corrective one (Options 1, 2, 4 and 5) I've labelled completed double/single zig zags ending with a truncation at 1099.08, followed by 5 waves down to yesterday's low at 1056.88, with today's high being the end of a corrective rally in the form of a  zig zag (see the chart posted at 20:33 BST for the zig zag count). 

If correct, then for Options 1 and 2 we would now be about to start a 3rd of a 3rd wave down at various degrees - both very bearish. For Option 4, we would be about to start wave (iii) of [c] of minor Y down - temporarily bearish. For Option 5, we would be about to start (iii) of [c] of minor Y down - again, temporarily bearish.   

On the count that places us in a 5 wave move off the 1 July low (Option 3), which would be part of a larger correction up,  I've labelled the high at 1099.46 as wave (iii) followed by  wave (iv) down to yesterday's low at 1056.88. The rally from there is labelled as i-ii-[1] of (v) of [a] up (see the second chart in my post at 16:55 BST).

The Options are the different ways to count the move down from 1219.80. There are 5 that I'm following and they are set out on the 60 min counts page. 

The question whether the rally from 1 July has completed a corrective move or whether its only all (or maybe, part) of a larger correction up remains to be answered.

Here's how things stand after today: 

Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

Five waves down from 1131.23 on this Option represents wave i of (iii) of [iii] of minor 1. The double zig zag I have labelled from the 1010.91 low would be wave ii of (iii), so implies that we are now in a wave iii of (iii) decline.

I've labelled a complete 5 wave decline from 1099.08 to 1056.88 to complete wave [1] of iii of (iii) down, followed by a  zig zag to today's high at 1097.50 for wave [2] of iii.

The 1099.08 high remains the invalidation point for the completion of wave ii on the  zig zag as labelled. Basically, for this count as labelled, we have to drop now and do so in a manner consistent with a 3rd of a 3rd at various degrees. The first level to watch is 1065.25, the (B) wave low, as you can see from the chart posted at 20:33 BST. Breaking that low would be a good indication that wave [3] of iii has started.

Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

For this Option, five waves down from 1131.23 represent wave (i) of [iii] of minor 1 down. The double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [iii], so, assuming its complete, we would be in wave (iii) of [iii] down.

This is the same labelling as on the chart of Option 1 for the rally from 1 July and subsequent decline (although the wave degress are different), so the invalidation point is  the same and the same comments made in respect of that count also apply here.

Option 3 - Ending diagonal complete at 1010.91

15 min chart:

For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 to 1010.91 could be  wave [v] of a leading diagonal down from 1219.80 and, therefore, minor wave 1.  

It places us now in minor wave 2 up.  I've labelled the start of 5 waves up from the 1010.91 low, on the assumption that we will get a zig zag type move up for wave 2, since we  would be retracing the whole decline from 1219.80, not just the drop from 1131.23.

I'm showing us having completed wave (iii) (at 1099.46) of what I'm assuming at the moment will be a 5 wave move for wave [a] of minor 2.  This would mean the pullback to 1056.88 was wave (iv) of [a].

We would now be in wave (v) which, on the basis of the action, seems to be sub dividing. This, to me, makes this count a little unlikely since it would mean a pretty large wave (v) compared to wave (i). However, unless it takes out 1065.25, its technically valid.

The alternate labelling assumes that the 5 waves down from 1131.23 is only wave (a) of [v] and that the retracement back up was wave (b). Assuming its complete, we'd now be in wave (c) down and the count shown on the charts of the other Options would likely be in effect.

Remember, if there is further downside  to come, we must stay above 999.83 for the leading diagonal count to remain valid. 

Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate (X) topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 would be wave (i) of [c] of minor Y and the double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [c].

However, as mentioned previously, counting a complete 5 waves down to 1010.91 does bring in the possibility that wave [c] of Y is done so we have also completed intermediate wave (X) - see the 60 min counts page. That would put us now in a minor wave A rally and eventually take us to new highs. If wave (X) did end at 1010.91, then the impulse wave I have labelled on the chart of Option 3 would apply here.

For the moment, I've assumed we started wave (iii) of [c] down  from  the 1099.08 high. The 5 waves down to 1056.88 would be wave i of (iii)  of [c] and the rally to today's high would be wave ii. We ought now to be in wave iii of (iii) of [c].

The invalidation point is the same as for Options 1 and 2, though a continiung wave (ii) correction wouldn't be ruled out unless we take out 1131.23.

Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave (X) topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down

15 min chart:

On this Option, 5 waves down to 1010.91 would be wave [a] of minor Y down and the retracement would be wave [b]. If its over, we would now be headed down again in wave [c] to complete minor Y.

I've labelled a single zig zag on this chart for wave [b], but its end point is the same as for Options 1, 2 and 4, namely, the high at 1099.08, so that would be the beginning of wave [c]. 

I'm counting the 5 waves down from that high to 1056.88 as wave (i)  and today's high as wave (ii) of [c]. The same invalidation point stated for  options 1, 2 and 4  applies here, but again, it wouldn't rule out a continuing wave [b] correction unless 1131.23 is taken out.

On Options 1, 2, 4 and 5, even if 1099.08 is taken out, there remain counts for a corrective move up from 1010.91 (see the first and third charts in my update at 16:55) which aren't invalidated unless we take out 1131.23. So, the bearish Options remain very much alive, even if 1099.08 is taken out.

As mentioned in  my post at 20:33 BST, the divergence between the main indices is potentially bearish. They didn't work that diverence off today, but could do so within the next couple of sessions, in which case, it will have meant nothing. However, its something to take note of since as long as it persists, it has possible bearish implications.

20:33 BST - SPX Update

This complete ending diagonal count has no more room left - it has to drop now or its going to be invalidated.

If the ending diagonal in wave [C] is correct, then taking out 1091.01 would suggest wave ii is done, albeit with a very deep retracement.

SPX - complete zig zag from 1056.88:

Although the depth of the retracement of the decline from 14 July seems to render this count unlikely, so far, the Dow, the Nasdaq Composite, the Russell and BKX are a reasonable way below the high of that date (BKX is nowhere near it in fact), so this count presently works well on those indices.  Only the Transports and the Nasdaq 100 have taken out the 14 July high. This divergence between the indices may prove to be bearish, though they may yet negate the divergnce, of course.

16:55 BST - SPX Update

On the counts I'm following, the 1065.25 level seems to be of potential importance. Here are the charts to show why:

SPX - double zig zag from 1 July:

Taking out 1065.25 on this count may just mean that wave [B] is continuing, but it may start to make the count look unlikely.

SPX -  impulse from 1 July:

Taking out 1065.25 on this count would mean we are not in wave [1] of iii. Provided we don't take out 1056.88, it could be that wave ii is continuing, but I don't think it would look good since today's rally would have to be a [B] wave within ii but it looks like 5 waves, not 3. So, taking out that level may mean this count is unlikely to be in play, even though its only invalidated below 1056.88

SPX - wave [C] of second zig zag:

Taking out 1065.25 on this count would suggest the second zig zag is over, unless wave [B] is continuing - that might seem unlikely for the reasons referred to above in respect of the first chart. However, it wouldn't rule out a continuing wave x, so we'd still have to be on the look out for another zig zag until the 1 July low is taken out.

SPX -  complete zig zag from 1056.88:

Taking out 1065.25 on this count is likely to signify the end of the move up from 1056.88, even though it wouldn't be conclusive until we take out 1056.88.

15:41 BST - SPX Update

Here's another count to consider - that we're in the final [C] wave of a double zig zag up from 1 July. This is more bullish than the count I posted earlier and would probably involve moving above 1099.08. However, its less bullish than the impulse count shown on the chart of Option 3 or the other continuing double zig zag count that I posted at the end of Tuesday night's update:

SPX 1 min chart - in wave [C] of a second zig zag from 1 July:

 

15:16 BST - SPX Update

The bullish options have certainly re-gained the upper hand today - see the chart of Option 3 in last night's update - but this bearish one still remains valid:

SPX 1 min - bearish count:

Its invalidated above 1099.08, so not much room left for it. Still, its worth noting.

12:02 BST - Options Equity Put/Call Ratio Update

On Friday 16 July the 5 day moving average of the CPCE had ticked up in an area of support, giving an early suggestion that we may be reaching a top of some kind in the market (you can see a longer term chart here). I said then that we needed to see the 10 day ma also tick up and the 5ma cross above it.

Well, we have those conditions in place now, so on past performance, there's a reasonable chance that we have seen, or are fairly close to, a top.

Here's the updated chart:

CPCE Daily:

A couple of points to note:

1) Just because the conditions mentioned have been met, does not mean that the market won't go higher - this signal doesn't necessarily occur at the precise price top;

2) note the period highlighted by the green rectangle where the moving averages got stuck under the blue line, even though the 5ma crossed above the 10ma a few times. You can see on the price chart in the window below that the market continued to move up during this period, quite signifcantly.

So, there's a reasonable prospect that a market high is in or near, based on the tick up in the moving averages of the CPCE and the cross of the 5ma above the 10ma, all at an area of prior support. However, watch the behaviour of these moving averages - if they begin to struggle to get above the blue line, it could be a warning that the markets will continue higher before a top is reached.

21:21 BST - SPX Update

On the counts that imply the rally from the 1 July low is a corrective one (Options 1, 2, 4 and 5) I've labelled completed double/single zig zags ending with a truncation at 1099.08, followed by 5 waves down to yesterday's low at 1056.88, with today's high being the end of a corrective rally in the form of a double zig zag. 

If correct, then for Options 1 and 2 we would be in a 3rd of a 3rd wave down at various degrees - both very bearish. For Option 4, we would be in wave (iii) of [c] of minor Y down - temporarily bearish. For Option 5, we would be in (iii) of [c] of minor Y down - again, temporarily bearish.   

On the count that places us in a 5 wave move off the 1 July low (Option 3), which would be part of a larger correction up,  I've labelled the high at 1099.46 as wave (iii) followed by  wave (iv) down to yesterday's low at 1056.88. The rally from there is labelled as wave i of (v) of [a] up.

The Options are the different ways to count the move down from 1219.80. There are 5 that I'm following and they are set out on the 60 min counts page. 

The question whether the rally from 1 July has completed a corrective move or whether its only all (or maybe, part) of a larger correction up remains to be answered.

Here's how things stand after today: 

Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

Five waves down from 1131.23 on this Option represents wave i of (iii) of [iii] of minor 1. The double zig zag I have labelled from the 1010.91 low would be wave ii of (iii), so implies that we are now in a wave iii of (iii) decline.

I've labelled a complete 5 wave decline from 1099.08 to yesterday's low at 1056.88 to complete wave [1] of iii of (iii) down, followed by a double zig zag to today's high at 1088.96 for wave [2] of iii..

The 1099.08 high remains the invalidation point for the completion of wave ii on the double zig zag as labelled.

If we are in a 3rd of a 3rd decline at several degrees of trend as suggested by this count, we need to see price action behave in a manner consistent with that - steep declines with little opportunity to get on. We've probably yet to see this. However, taking out yesterday's low at 1056.88 would be a good start, but we then need to see the July low at 1010.91 taken out pretty quickly.

Until then, the bullish count in Option 3 remains viable, as do other less bullish possibilities, such as a continuing wave ii or (ii) correction (see the 60 min counts page).

Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

For this Option, five waves down from 1131.23 represent wave (i) of [iii] of minor 1 down. The double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [iii], so, assuming its complete, we would be in wave (iii) of [iii] down.

This is the same labelling as on the chart of Option 1 for the rally from 1 July and subsequent decline (although the wave degress are different), so the invalidation point is  the same and the same comments made in respect of that count also apply here.

Option 3 - Ending diagonal complete at 1010.91

15 min chart:

For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 to 1010.91 could be  wave [v] of a leading diagonal down from 1219.80 and, therefore, minor wave 1.  

It places us now in minor wave 2 up.  I've labelled the start of 5 waves up from the 1010.91 low, on the assumption that we will get a zig zag type move up for wave 2, since we  would be retracing the whole decline from 1219.80, not just the drop from 1131.23.

I'm showing us having completed wave (iii) (at 1099.46) of what I'm assuming at the moment will be a 5 wave move for wave [a] of minor 2.  This would mean the pullback to yesterday's low was wave (iv) of [a].

I've labelled the rally from there as wave i of (v) and the pullback from today's high would be wave ii. It has to stay above 1056.88 for this labelling to remain valid. Falling below that low wouldn't rule out a continuing wave (iv), but it might be less likely and require a review of this bullish count.

The alternate labelling assumes that the 5 waves down from 1131.23 is only wave (a) of [v] and that the retracement back up was wave (b). Assuming its complete, we'd now be in wave (c) down and the count shown on the charts of the other Options would likely be in effect.

Remember, if there is further downside  to come, we must stay above 999.83 for the leading diagonal count to remain valid. 

Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate (X) topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 would be wave (i) of [c] of minor Y and the double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [c].

However, as mentioned previously, counting a complete 5 waves down to 1010.91 does bring in the possibility that wave [c] of Y is done so we have also completed intermediate wave (X) - see the 60 min counts page. That would put us now in a minor wave A rally and eventually take us to new highs. If wave (X) did end at 1010.91, then the impulse wave I have labelled on the chart of Option 3 would apply here.

For the moment, I've assumed we are starting wave (iii) of [c] down  from  the 1099.08 high. The 5 waves down to yesterday's low would be wave i of (iii)  of [c] and the rally to today's high would be wave ii. We ought now to be in wave iii of (iii) of [c].

The invalidation point is the same as for Options 1 and 2, though a continiung wave (ii) correction wouldn't be ruled out unless we take out 1131.23.

Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave (X) topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down

15 min chart:

On this Option, 5 waves down to 1010.91 would be wave [a] of minor Y down and the retracement would be wave [b]. If its over, we would now be headed down again in wave [c] to complete minor Y.

I've labelled a single zig zag on this chart for wave [b], but its end point is the same as for Options 1, 2 and 4, namely, the high at 1099.08, so that would be the beginning of wave [c]. 

I'm counting the 5 waves down from that high to yesterday's low as wave (i)  and today's high as wave (ii) of [c]. The same invalidation point stated for  options 1, 2 and 4  applies here, but again, it wouldn't rule out a continuing wave [b] correction unless 1131.23 is taken out.

Here's an update of the chart 've been posting today looking at the action from today's high (the charts above provide the context for this close up):

SPX 1 min:

The degree labels for the main count used relate to Option 2. Although I have shown wave [1] of iii down complete at today's low, its possible we haven't yet completed it, but in that case, it may not be far off completion, so we'd have to expect a wave [2] rally fairly soon.

The alternate labelling relates to Option 3 above. The low at 1056.88 remained intact so this count is still on.

So, the bearish Options (1, 2, 4 and 5) look to be in better shape after today. However,  the bullish Option (Option 3) remains very much on the table. The levels to watch are 1099.08 and 1056.88 - although a break of these levels will not completely eliminate the bullish or bearish Options, probably only requiring a review of the count, the risk of the bullish count playing out increases above 1099.08 and the risk of the bearish count playing out increases below 1056.88.

19:24 BST - SPX Update

The bearish count looks a whole lot better now, but the bullish count remains in play with some relabelling as shown below (by the way, please refer to the chart of Option 2 for the larger picture of the bearish count - its a proxy for the other three Options which also have this bearish count - and the chart of Option 3 for the larger picture of the bullish count):

SPX 1 min - today's action:

For the bullish count, we've reached a 50% retracement of wave i - a 61.8% retrace is at about 1069. This count is invalidated below 1056.88. 

For the bearish count, its invalidated above today's high.

17:43 BST - SP X Update

Bullish count: we've started wave iii of (v) up from today's low. Bearish Option: from today's high we've had (1) down and an expanded flat for wave (2).

The bullish count will be invalid as labelled if we drop below today's low; the bearish count is invalid as labelled above today's high.

SPX 1 min chart - today's move:

 

16:15 BST - SPX Update

We could be at the start of wave iii of (iii) of [iii] down on the bearish Options, 1,2,4, and 5, or just in an [A]-[B]-[C] wave ii of (v) retracement on the bullish Option 3. Here's a close up on a 1 min chart showing the bullish and bearish counts for the decline from today's high:

SPX 1 min - count from 1088.96:

15:03 BST - SPX Update

If we're in an impulse wave up from the 1056.88 low, then today's high could be the end of the 1st wave of that impulse - this is the count I have on the chart of Option 3. Here's the 1 min chart showing the move up from yesterday's low:

SPX 1 min chart - impulse wave:

To negate the impulse wave count, we need to take out 1056.88, Taking out the wave [3] high at 1078.24 would be a start since it would eliminate the possibility that this current pullback is a 4th wave within an extending wave [3]. But only taking out 1056.88 will end this count.

If we completed a double zig zag up from 1056.88 at today's high, (see Options 1,2,4 and 5) taking out the wave (B)  of [Y] low at 1074.25 will increase the odds that the rally from yesterday's low is over and that we should go on to take out yesterday's low. Here's a chart of the double zig zag:

SPX 1 min chart - double zig zag:

12:47 BST - SPX - Is a more sustained downtrend being signalled?

Just a quick look at the RSI (14) on the weekly and daily timeframes may be the confirmation that the bears are looking for, that we are more likely to be in for a sustained period of downward rather than upward movement in the markets.

Here's the weekly chart with the RSI in the window above price:

SPX Weekly RSI:

I've highlighted the behaviour of the RSI during recent bull and bear runs in the market. Clearly, it spends most of its time above the 50 level during a bull run and most of its time below the 50 level during a bear run.  

Looking at the far right of the chart, we seem to be seeing the RSI stuck largely below the 50 line since about early May, suggesting the current downtrend in the market could still have more to go.

Here's the daily:

SPX Daily RSI:

Obviously, the RSI is rather more volatile on this timeframe and its moves out of the bullish or bearish zone are deeper than on the weekly, so there's more scope to be whipsawed out of a position using the RSI alone. 

Still, since early May, its spent most of its time below the 50 line. Though its risen above 50 now, with the 50 day moving average having crossed below the 200ma, it suggests that RSI crosses above 50 may be only temporary in nature and not indicative of a change back to an uptrend.

The Bullish Percent line of the SPX is also behaving in a bearish manner - its been unable to recover above the 50 line and get back into the bullish zone, despite recent steep rallies. Its also below its 21 day moving average. This isn't bullish and seems more indicative of the beginnings of a sustained downtrend.

So, just a couple of things to keep an eye on as price action develops.

21:35 BST - SPX Update

On the counts that imply the rally from the 1 July low is a corrective one (Options 1, 2, 4 and 5) I've labelled completed double/single zig zags ending with a truncation at 1099.08, followed by 5 waves down to today's low at 1056.88, with today's rally being a double zig zag.

On the count that places us in a 5 wave move off the 1 July low (Option 3), which would be part of a larger correction up,  I've labelled the high at 1099.46 as wave (iii) and today's low as wave (iv)

The Options are the different ways to count the move down from 1219.80. There are 5 that I'm following and they are set out on the 60 min counts page. 

The question whether the rally from 1 July has completed a corrective move or whether its only all (or maybe, part) of a larger correction up remains to be answered.

Here's how things stand after today:

Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

Five waves down from 1131.23 on this Option represents wave i of (iii) of [iii] of minor 1. The double zig zag I have labelled from the 1010.91 low would be wave ii of (iii), so implies a wave iii of (iii) decline to follow.

I've labelled a complete 5 wave decline from 1099.08 to today's low at 1056.88 to complete wave [1] of iii of (iii) down.

The 1099.08 high remains the invalidation point for the completion of wave ii on the double zig zag as labelled.

 

Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

For this Option, five waves down from 1131.23 represent wave (i) of [iii] of minor 1 down. The double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [iii], so, assuming its complete, we would be in wave (iii) of [iii] down.

This is the same labelling as on the chart of Option 1 for the rally from 1 July and subsequent decline (although the wave degress are different), so the invalidation point is  the same.

Option 3 - Ending diagonal complete at 1010.91

15 min chart:

For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 to 1010.91 could be  wave [v] of a leading diagonal down from 1219.80 and, therefore, minor wave 1.  

It places us now in minor wave 2 up.  I've labelled the start of 5 waves up from the 1010.91 low, on the assumption that we will get a zig zag type move up for wave 2, since we  would be retracing the whole decline from 1219.80, not just the drop from 1131.23.

I'm showing us having completed wave (iii) (at 1099.46) of what I'm assuming at the moment will be a 5 wave move for wave [a] of minor 2.  This would mean the pullback to today's low was wave (iv) of [a].

Today's action looks like it completed wave (iv), putting us now in wave (v) up to complete minute [a] of minor 2 - taking out today's low will invalidate that.

The alternate labelling assumes that the 5 waves down from 1131.23 is only wave (a) of [v] and that the retracement back up was wave (b). Assuming its complete, we'd now be in wave (c) down and the count shown on the charts of the other Options would likely be in effect.

Remember, if there is further downside  to come, we must stay above 999.83 for the leading diagonal count to remain valid. 

Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate (X) topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 would be wave (i) of [c] of minor Y and the double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [c].

However, as mentioned previously, counting a complete 5 waves down to 1010.91 does bring in the possibility that wave [c] of Y is done so we have also completed intermediate wave (X) - see the 60 min counts page. That would put us now in a minor wave A rally and eventually take us to new highs. If wave (X) did end at 1010.91, then the impulse wave I have labelled on the chart of Option 3 would apply here.

For the moment, I've assumed we are starting wave (iii) of [c] down  from  the 1099.08 high. The 5 waves down to today's low would be wave i of (iii)  of [c] and today's rally would be wave ii. 

The invalidation point is the same as for Options 1 and 2.

Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave (X) topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down

15 min chart:

On this Option, 5 waves down to 1010.91 would be wave [a] of minor Y down and the retracement would be wave [b]. If its over, we would now be headed down again in wave [c] to complete minor Y.

I've labelled a single zig zag on this chart for wave [b], but its end point is the same as for Options 1, 2 and 4, namely, the high at 1099.08, so that would be the beginning of wave [c]. 

I'm counting the 5 waves down from that high to today's low as wave (i)  and today's rally as wave (ii) of [c]. The same invalidation point stated for  options 1, 2 and 4  apply here.

Here's an update of the chart I posted earlier showing the 5 waves down to today's low and the subsequent rally:

SPX 1 min:

The degree labels used relate to Option 2. If it is a 2nd wave retracement, it should be done about now or very nearly done. The second zig zag is about 1.618 x the first zig zag at today's high and the retracement is 61.8% of the first wave.

Obviously, we can't ignore the fact that it can also be counted as an impulse wave up from today's low, which could mean that the continuing double zig zag previously identified could be playing out and that these 2nd waves up from 1010.91 are retracing higher.

SPX 1 min - double zig zag still in progress:

The other possibility, if 1098.66 is taken out, would be that the count on the chart of Option 3 is playing out, so we would have to expect a substantial rally which would very likely take out the high at 1131.23.

So, the immediately bearish count, the moderatley bullish count and the very bullish count all remain on the table. The immediately bearish counts will be invalidated above 1099.08, in which case, focus will then switch to the more bullish options.