Thursday, 22 July 2010

22:41 BST - SPX Update

As I mentioned in the update after the close, in respect of the count on the chart of Option 3, I'm a little dubious that wave (v) of [a] is extending in the manner that the labelling suggests. So, looking at the alternatives, maybe we are forming an ending diagonal for wave (v) as shown by the dotted red line on this chart:

SPX 1 min chart - impulse up from 1 July:

The ending diagonal possibility would be eliminated if we drop below the blue dotted line since it would make the lines parallel rather than converging. If it does play out, a target area might be 1109 where this wave (v) would be about 2.618 x wave (i).

Or perhaps we completed wave [a] at 1099.46 and we are now in wave [c], in which case, a subdividing wave wouldn't look out of place. Here's a 10 min chart:

On this count, we still have to stay above 1065.25 for it to remain valid. Taking out 1056.88 would suggest that the count may be wrong, but it may just mean that wave [b] is continuing.

On this count, wave [c] would be equal in size to wave [a] at about 1146.