Tuesday, 16 November 2010

21:11 GMT - SPX End of Day Update

On the bearish count, I'm counting the high at 1227.08 as the end of the rally from the August low. The chart of the bearish count is labelled as if Option 2, shown on Chart 1 on the 60 min counts page, is playing out and if that's correct, then we should see a fairly substantial decline in a wave Y (or it may be a wave C).

I'm counting a [1]-[2]-(1) down from the 1227.08 high for this bearish count. Here's a close up of the move from that high:

Chart 1: SPX 1 min - bear count from the 1227.08 high:

As you can see I have us in the process of completing wave (1) of [3] down. If this count is correct, the next rally for (2) of [3] will have to stay below the wave [2] high at 1207.43. If that gets taken out, then we're either still in wave [2] as an expanded type correction, or the bullish count shown below may be playing out.

The bullish count is labelled as if Option 3 shown on Chart 2 on the 60 min counts page is playing out. As you can see from that chart, if we completed 5 waves up from the August low there are various ways to interpret what that may be. It should be noted that one of those interpretations is bearish (number 4). For the close up chart below, I've assumed that 5 waves up from August  completes wave [iii] of A simply because, of the bullish interpretations, that's the one that will be invalidated quickest, by a drop below 1129.24 because wave [iv] can't end below the high of wave [i].

Here's the close up showing the move from the 1227.08 high:

Chart 2: SPX 1 min - bullish count from the 1227.08 high:

As you can see, the labelling shows a near complete (a)-(b)-(c) from the high. This could be the whole of wave [iv], but it might look better timewise if it lasted longer and perhaps went to the 38.2% retracement level at about 1156. So, its possible that the (a)-(b)-(c) labelled is of a lesser degree and is part of a larger corrective pattern.

If one of the other two bullish interpretations of Option 3 is playing out then this decline will be a second wave of some degree (see the 1st and 2nd interpretations on the 60 min counts page), so I'd expect it to go much deeper, to the 1134-1112 area (the 50% to 61.8% retracement level). So, it would be more than likely that the decline so far is only part of a larger retracement of the rally from the August low, possibly part of a double zig zag.

So, if, on the next retracement up we take out the high at 1207.43, the odds will favour that one of the bullish counts is playing out. Although it would still be possible that, on the bearish count, wave [2] is just forming an expanded type correction, this may be the least likely possibility since the move down from 1207.43 does seem to count nicely as a 5 wave move so it couldn't be a B or X wave in an expanded correction.

Ideally, if the bear count is playing out, a retracement of the decline from 1207.43 should end at around the 50% to 61.8% retracement level which is between 1190 and 1194, assuming that today's low at 1173 is the end of wave (1) of [3]. However, today's gap down starts at 1197 and may get filled.

If we take out 1207.43, focus will switch to the bullish counts, but it won't necessarily mean that a new high above 1227.08 is imminent. We may just be forming an X wave before further corrective downside action to complete the retracement of the rally from the August low, whether its wave [iv] of A, or a second wave on one of the more bullish interpretations of Option 3.