Tuesday, 16 November 2010

16:47 GMT - SPX Update

On the bear count, we may be nearing a low of some sort. I have it as wave 3 of (1) of [3], but it may well be the end of wave (1). Here's the chart updated from earlier:

SPX 1 min bear count:

On the bullish count, I'm definitely preferring the count that has 5 waves up from the August low complete at 1227.08 (which brings it into line with the bear count). This chart is Chart 3 on the 60 min counts page showing the up to date action:

SPX 60 min - Option 3 top at 1227.08:

As you can see, the uptrend channel has been broken and re-tested from below. That tends to support the count shown which assumes the end of the uptrend delineated by that channel. 

The chart labels show two of the ways to interpret what the end of 5 waves means on Option 3 - the 60 min counts page sets out the others. Which one is playing out will determine whether the high at 1227.08 is only a temporary high which will eventually be taken out or whether its something more bearish.
Here's the close up:

SPX 1 min - bullish count:

I've labelled it as if the 5 waves up from the August low is wave [iii] of A, only because this is the interpretation that will be invalidated first - we have to stay above 1129.24 for this to remain valid.