Thursday, 14 October 2010

19:07 BST - SPX Update : main bullish count invalidated, but the alternative stands. Diagonal from the high on the bearish count?

The main bullish count shown in the last post has been invalidated by the move below 1168.68. That focuses attention on the more bullish count I've mentioned but not previously charted in detail (I've been describing it in end of day updates). You can see it on Chart 3 on the 60 min counts page and here's a close up from the wave (iv) low:

SPX 1 min - bullish count:

It shows wave (v) subdividing. This labelling will be invalidated if we take out 1155.71.

On the bearish count, I'm starting to favour the diagonal down from the high rather than a straight impulse, though it still could be either. I've labelled a complete diagonal on the following chart:

SPX 1 min - bearish count:

If we continue to fall without a meaningful retracement for what would be wave [2] on the diagonal count, the impulse wave down will start to look better again. Obviously, for this bearish count, the high at 1184.38 has to remain intact.