Thursday, 14 October 2010

15:48 BST - SPX Update on the bullish and bearish counts

Here's how what I'm seeing at the moment:

First, the bullish count: looks like a possible complete wave [4] of v:
SPX 1 min - bullish count:

It would be fine for wave [4] to drop more, but it has to stay above 1168.68 for this count to remain valid.

Second, the bearish count: a possible (1)-(2)-(3) down so far:

This will be invalidated if wave (4) ends above the wave (1) low at 1179.46. In that case, we might then have a (1)-(2)-1-2 down, but I wouldn't place too much confidence in that. However, if that were the count, wave 2 would have to stay below 1182.47 for the count to remain valid. 

If we take that out, its possible that we could say that today's low was wave (5) and, therefore, wave [1] down and if we don't take out the high at 1184.38, that would be how I'd count it. At the moment however, the close up of the move down from 1182.47 to 1174.04 (which would be wave (3) on this way of counting the move) isn't the best looking 5 waves I've seen.