Tuesday, 12 October 2010

16:40 BST - SPX Update on the bearish counts

Once again, after a promising start, the bear counts aren't following through. With a little juggling of the labels, I can label 5 waves down from the end of a revised version of the ending diagonal from Chart 1 in yesterday's end of day update:

SPX 1 min - ending diagonal from 1131.87:

The diagonal has a truncated [C] wave within wave v, but wave v did end above wave iii, so no rules are broken.

On the count for an impulse wave up from 1131.87, the drop from 1168.68 could be re-labelled as shown in the chart below:

SPX 1 min - impulse from 1131.87:

Its not great since wave 1 is large in relation to the higher degree wave (1).

Both of these counts are invalidated above 1167.95, which would make new highs for the rally from the August low very likely. To the downside, I'm watching 1155.71 - while we remain above that, the risk of new highs remains the most likely outcome.