Tuesday, 12 October 2010

15:05 BST - SPX Update - Ending diagonal in Chart 1 from yesterday's end of day update confirmed as complete...but

As mentioned in yesterday's end of day update, the first reference point I was watching that might suggest an end to the rally from the August low was the black dotted line on Chart 1 in that update. Well, we've taken it out today so that rules out the possibility that the diagonal I have labelled on that chart is continuing as shown by the alternate labels:

SPX 1 min - diagonal from 1131.87:

So, if the move up from 1131.87 was a diagonal, it must now be complete. 

However, that doesn't guarantee an end to the rally from the August low. As shown in the other charts I've been posting, we may have had an impulse wave up from the 1131.87 low, in which case, the risk of further upside remains. The next level I said I'd be watching is 1151.4, which relates to the possible impulse counts shown on Chart 2 in yesterday's end of day update. If that level can get taken out, then its all eyes on 1131.87.

In the meantime, the immediately bearish argument would be strengenthed if the current move up from today's low could stay below the low I've labelled wave 1 of (3) at 1162.02 if the labelling I've shown is correct.