Thursday, 7 October 2010

15:34 BST - SPX Update: wave v of (v) subdividing or ending diagonal forming?

Here are two possibilities for the move from the 1131.87 low (the labelling on this chart assumes Option 1 on the 60 min counts page is playing out):

SPX 1 min - wave v of (v) subdividing or ending diagonal forming?

The main labelling implies a fair amount more upside. As mentioned in my previous post, one of the levels I wanted to see taken out was 1156.22. We just missed doing so, which means there is the possibility that wave [3] of v is subdividing.

The alternative count that I've labelled would be more limited: if the labels are correct for the diagonal, wave iii is 9.02 points so wave v has to stay below 1165.31, assuming wave v of the diagonal started at 1156.29. Taking out the black dotted line invalidates the diagonal.

The more bearish possibility is that today's high was the end of the rally and we're in the process of forming a larger impulse wave down - the odds of this would increase if we take out 1154.88 and make a clear 5 waves down in doing so. However, the possibility that a big expanded flat wave iv is still forming can't be ruled out - we'd just have to see what happens if and when we get 5 waves down.