Thursday, 7 October 2010

14:37 BST - SPX Update: Still looking for 5 waves up from 1131.87

With the high at 1162.76 taken out, the count that had yesterday's move as a 4th wave of some degree is now the focus. As mentioned in yesterday's updates, this was always the risk given that the market again did not put in 5 waves to the downside - the decline from the 1162.76 high was only 3 waves. 

So, with the re-labelling I mentioned might be necessary, this is how it looks (the chart is labelled as if Option 3 on the 60 min counts page is playing out, but you can see on that page what 5 waves up from the August low would mean on the more bearish counts under Options 1 an 2 on that page):

SPX 1 min - 5 waves up from the August low, close up from 1131.87 wave (iv) low:

The next Gann price level above 1156 is 1173 and that coincides with the 78.6% retracement level of the decline from 1219.80. The price range between 1156 to 1173 is an area to watch for price action that might suggest a top is in for the rally from the August low. 

However, as always, until we see an impulsive move to the downside that takes out a significant pivot, the risk of further upside remains. Currently, the level I'm focusing on is at 1154.85.