Friday, 10 September 2010

19:04 BST - SPX update on the bearish count

The count that had us complete an ending diagonal at today's high (see the earlier post here) is looking a bit ropey at the moment. Here's how I'm counting it currently, waves 1 and 2 down (this will be invalidated if we take out today's high):

SPX 1 min - ending diagonal complete at 1110.27:

However, it could just as easily be  that we haven't completed the diagonal and that its forming a second zig zag within wave (5) of the diagonal (remember that we have to stay below 1120.53 if there is more upside in the diagonal).

Alternatively, the ending diagonal 5th wave shown in the last update may be the one that's playing out, in which case, the upside is potentially greater and there is more risk of the bearish count being invalidated (with a move above 1129.24). However, if it is playing out, we'll just have to see how it develops.

I've mentioned the 1101.53 level in my previous posts today - I think that until we take that out, the bearish count is prone to further upside.