Friday, 10 September 2010

15:27 BST - SPX Update on the bearish count

This is how I'm counting the move from the 1109.92 high which I labelled as the top of wave ii on the bearish count (see yesterday's end of day update):

SPX 1 min close up from 1109.92 high:

The alternative labelling on this chart relates to the bullish counts which you can see in the update I posted on those counts yesterday.

On the bearish counts, there's not a great deal of room left for this count - its invalidated above 1109.92.

If that high is taken out, it would mean that wave ii is continuing higher, but as I said in yesterday's end of day update, there's not much room for a larger impulse wave up before this [i]-[ii]-i-ii count gets invalidated. So, for the bearish count, I'd have to look at wave [C] as possibly forming an ending diagonal as I've sketched in on the following chart with the orange lines:

SPX 1 min - ending diagonal for [C] of ii:

If its an ending diaginal, I'd have us in wave (5) and as you can see from the note on the chart, that wave must stay below 1120.53 in order to comply with the rules. It also has to take out the wave (3) high at 1110.27.