Thursday, 16 September 2010

18:38 BST - SPX : Update on the near term bullish and the bearish counts

Still no answer to the question of whether or not we're going to see a high above 1127.36 or whether that was a top of some sort. Here's the labelling from the earlier chart updated with the action since:

SPX 1 min - close up of the move from 1127.36:

For the near term bullish count which requires a further rally in wave [5], I still prefer the continuing wave [4] over the (1)-(2) up (ie wave [5] already in progress).

Assuming wave [4] is continuing as a triangle, we could be near completion although if 1118.88 was the (C) wave, the move up from there for (D) was rather short. So, it may be that we're still in (C).

For the bearish case shown as the main labelling, wave ii may be a running correction, where the C wave fails to get above the high of the A wave. Alternatively, it might be a W-X-Y and we'd have another leg up in Y to come. Whichever it is, we still need to see some decisively bearish action if this count is playing out.

The levels I'm watching remain as set out in the earlier post: 1127.36, 1114.63 and 1110.27 (see the charts in this post).