Thursday, 16 September 2010

16:28 BST - SPX Update on the near term bullish and the bear counts

Following on from my earlier post, here's how both the near-term bullish and the bearish counts look at the moment:

SPX 1 min - close up of the move from 1127.36:

We took out 1120.59, so confirmed that, if we have another high to come, we hadn't started wave (3) up. Though I've put the wave (2) low on the near-term bullish count at today's initial low, a wave (2) expanded flat after a leading diagonal is probably low odds. However, until we take out 1114.63, its a possibility. 

I've drawn in a possible triangle, which may be wave [4] still in progress for the near-term bullish count as an alternative to the (1)-(2) up. However, looking at the wider view (see the second chart in the earlier post), wave [4] is getting rather large. That doesn't invalidate it so its a possibility that has to be considered.

These issues with the near-term bullish case would tend to favour the bearish count shown as the main labelling on this chart - at least you would think so. It does look reasonable on the chart. However, until we get downside follow through, we have to accept the risk of further upside.

Remember, if we take out 1114.36, the near-term bullish (1)-(2) up is negated. If we take out 1110.27, the continuing wave [4] on the near-term bullish count is negated. If we take out the high at 1127.36, the bear count is negated. So, those are the levels I'm watching on my labelling.