Tuesday, 28 September 2010

15:17 BST - SPX Update: 5 waves down from 1149.92?

Its possible that we've now seen 5 waves down from yesterday's high. Here it is on chart 2 from yesterday's end of day update:

SPX 1 min - 5 waves down from 1149.92 complete?:

I can't be sure its the end of 5 waves down, but its right at the top of Friday's gap up, so it could be and we might see support come in here, so its a logical place to be on the look out for a low. If things are really weak, we could just continue to fall and fill the gap.

However, you get the idea and whether its bottomed where I've labelled it or there's more to go to the downside first, once we have completed wave (1), then the bounce is going to be critical - obviously, we have to stay below 1149.92 for the labelling shown on this chart to remain valid. Preferably, the retracement will stay between the 50%-61.8% retracement levels, though we know a 2nd wave can retrace more. The deeper it retraces the more doubt that will create that an end to the rally from the August low ended yesterday.