Tuesday, 7 September 2010

14:58 BST - SPX Update: wave ii top with a truncated 5th within [C]?

There's a possibilty that, on the bearish counts (see Friday'e end of day update) we topped at Friday's end of day rally in wave ii, with a truncated 5th wave:

SPX 1 min from 27 August low:

Its possible that the (1)-(2) count that put the wave ii high at 1105.10 that I showed on Friday is actually what we've seen, but its certainly easier to count the 5 waves up for [C] that we needed from the low at 1040.88 with a truncated 5th at 1104.58. For this reason, I favour the count shown above rather than the (1)-(2) count with the wave ii top at 1105.10.

Here's a close up showing wave 5 of (5) of [C]:

So, the current count for the bear case puts us at the start of wave iii down. Obviously, this count is invalidated by a move above 1104.58 - in that case, the alternative shown (that today we just had a wave c within wave 4 of (5) of [C] would be the most likely count for the bear case (that could be ruled out if we drop below 1087.11 before making a new high).