Thursday, 26 August 2010

9:42 BST - Dollar Update - Possible top for wave (i) of [i] of minor 3 and what to look out for

Yesterday it looked like the dollar was completing 5 waves up from the low of 80.085 which would be wave (i) of [i] within minor wave 3. You can read yesterday's update here.

In that update I mentioned the possibility that we could still be in wave [4] of v of (i), with a little more downside to come, provided we stayed above the wave [1] high at 82.717. Well, we have seen more downside and so far, we have stayed above that level, so the possibility remains that we are still in wave [4] of v and will see a further rally soon in wave [5].

The other possibility is that yesterday's high at 83.522 was wave [5] of v and wave (i), ending, therefore, with a slight truncation. You can see both of these possibilities on this chart:

Dollar 35 min:

I've labelled the truncated end to wave (i) as the main count only because we've broken the elliott channel for wave v, whereas, ideally, a 4th wave should stay within the channel. However, if we rally up hard back into it, and assuming we haven't first taken out the 82.717 high, it'll look like the alternate labelling of a wave [4] low at today's low is playing out. On the other hand, a rally back up to the broken channel line that gets rejected will increase the odds that we did top at 83.522.

So, I'll be watching price behaviour at that lower channel line and also watching that 82.717 level. 

Taking out that price level should confirm that wave (i) is in and that we'd be seeing a retracement down in wave (ii) now. You can see the retracement levels for wave (ii) assuming wave (i) topped at 83.522. There's an obvious support area at about 81.800 which is in the region of the 50% -61.8% retracment, the low of wave iv of (i) and the high of wave i of (i). If we're in wave (ii) down, I'll be on the lookout for a sign of an end to that wave in that area.