Wednesday, 25 August 2010

13:04 BST - Dollar Update - Nearing 5 waves up from 80.085?

The dollar index looks like it may be in wave [5] of v of (i) up from the low at 80.085. You can see from the elliott channel I've drawn in that a possible target for wave v could be the upper line of the channel which is at about 83.780-ish, depending on where wave v hits it. That's also about where wave [5] of v would be about equal to wave [1] and about where wave v would be approximately 1.236 x wave i:

Dollar 30 min:

Of course, its possible that wave [4] of v is still playing out, in which case, we'd see more downside before wave [5] kicks in. That's just something we'll have to watch out for.

If we are completing wave [5] and wave v and wave (i), we're going to get a pullback in wave (ii) next which could be steep. We'll just have to wait and see, but the wave count suggests that the next tradeable move could be to the downside.