Friday, 6 August 2010

18:19 BST - SPX Update - 5 min pitchforks

The pitchforks on the 5 min chart have done a good job of marking out the short terms trends and providing some warning of at least a brief end to the upward moves:

SPX 5 min pitchforks:

The blue one was the first that I drew and you can see how price ran up above the median line from the 30 July low, fell right back down to the lower line but bounced off it in a significant move up. That created the green fork.

When price broke below the median line of the green fork, it was a warning that the steep uptrend might be ending. It found support on the upperline of the blue fork, but instead of heading back up to the median line of the green fork, price just crawled up the blue fork, collided with the lower line of the green fork, then broke both of them. 

A backtest of the lower line of the green fork failed and price wasted no time dropping down to the median line of the blue fork. It found support there and rallied, but dropped back to the blue median line once again, had a very weak bounce but then fell below it. All it could then do was crawl up it for a short time before falling into the middle of the lower section of the blue fork.

It bounced from there in what looked like a potentially potent push up. The low it put in created the yellow fork. As potent as the bounce may have appeared, it was short-lived and price quickly came back to the lower line of the yellow fork. It was able to bounce from there but failed to reach the median lines of the blue and yellow forks. Instead, it fell back to the lower line of the yellow fork, tried to get back above it, but ultimately failed. 

The break of the lower line of the yellow fork quickly led to the break of the lowerline of the blue fork, and an attempt to get back above it failed. I had to wait a while before I was able to draw in the red fork, but that became possible after yesterday's close.

You can see that the bounce after the open today occurred at the median line of the red fork. However, as we saw, that was short-lived and we have now dropped through the median line. If the current bounce is only a correction in a downtrend, we shouldn't see price get too far above the median line, or if it does, it should come back down quickly.

We ought to see a drop to the lower line of the red fork - and that seems to be confirmed by the bearish wave count. 

If any move above the median line ends up finding support on it, then that should be a warning that we might see some more upside - given the bullish wave counts, that could be quite substantial, so this may be something to watch.