Monday, 16 August 2010

17:49 BST - SPX Update: 1 min chart close up

The main count of a wave [5] and i low at 1069.49 looks OK at the moment, with what appears to be a decent 5 wave count up from the low (I've labelled it as complete, but it may not be):

SPX 1 min close up:

The alternatives still stand, especially the possiblilty that wave [4] is still in progress (this would line up with what may be happening in the dollar - see my earlier update where the alternate of an expanded flat wave iv may be the preferable count based on action subsequent to that update, even though we haven't yet violated the current wave iv low). 

The option that the rally from the low is wave (2) of [5] is close to being negated and, if we have had 5 waves up from today's low, would seem unlikely, though its possible to count the rally as a double zig zag. If we drop from here and take out today's low, this would certainly be a stronger possibility, though I'd still prefer the expanded/running flat for wave [4] option.