Thursday, 5 August 2010

1:20 BST - Dollar Update

Zooming in on the 60 min dollar chart I posted yesterday, looking at it from what I have as the wave (iv) of [v] high at 81.977, it still currently looks like we might need a new low to complete wave [v]:

Dollar Index 10 min:

The first move up from where I have wave iii to where I have [W] of iv doesn't look impulsive. Although the rally today was reasonably impressive, it looks like it could just be part of wave iv. Wave iv may have another high to come, or it may have completed at the high of 81.106.

Having said that, you can see the alternative, that wave v ended with a truncation where I have labelled wave [X] of iv, in which case, a new high overnight above 81.106 would give us a nice 5 waves up from that low. Its also possible that we have had 5 waves up from that low but that the 5th wave of it truncated, but that wouldn't be very satisfactory for the first impulse up if we've just completed intermediate wave [2] down. Still, it can't be ruled out.

Hopefully we'll get some clarification of the correct labelling overnight or maybe early on tomorrow.