Thursday, 5 August 2010

00:08 BST - SPX Update

This updated 60 min chart isn't inspiring me with confidence on the long side:

SPX 60 min:

Price continues to crawl up the median line of the pitchfork (orange line), but remains below it and momentum continues to wane.

The RSI is still showing bearish diverence against each new price high. The MACD hsitogram couldn't even get above the zero line despite today's rally. The MACD itself continues its series of lower highs against higher highs in price. The slow STO couldn't get into overbought territory on the late afternoon high, and is diverging bearishly againt price. The ADX line continues to signal a weak trend, again, despite the higher price highs.

This chart too doesn't help:

SPX 60 min - diverging indices:

So far, only the Dow has made it above the 21 June high (the Transports did briefly poke above it on 27 July but reversed sharply and has since been unable to get back above it).

Of course, divergences like those shown on these two charts can be worked off in an instant, but for the time being,  its not too convincing on the long side.