Tuesday, 27 July 2010

9:25 BST - Dollar Update

I'm still looking for the end of the decline in the dollar from its 7 June high. I've relabelled the count to an A-B-C for intermediate wave (2):

Dollar Index 60 min chart:

I can count 5 waves down from the B wave high at 83.600, with wave [v] of C looking like an ending diagonal. Its possible that the ending diagonal is complete at today's low of 81.913, but it may only now be in its 4th wave, so there would be another low to come. If that's the case, I've shown with the gray line where a 4th wave rally would invalidate the diagonal by causing the lines to become parallel. Also, if today's low is only the 3rd wave of the diagonal, the 3rd wave is 1115 points long, so wherever the 4th wave tops, the 5th wave will need to be shorter than that for the diagonal to remain valid.

The bullish divergence between price and the MACD continues to suggest that a low ought to be near, but until price actually delivers on that, the trend is firmly down. An initial sign of a possible trend change might be if we can get above the wave [iv] of C high at 83.451, but it would need to show impulsive qualities in getting there in order to give any confidence that its not just pullback prior to new lows.