Tuesday, 27 July 2010

16:07 BST - SPX Update

Remember, from last night's update, basically, we're looking at a single or double zig zag up from the 1 July low. The single zig zag is shown on the chart of Option 3 while the double zig zag is shown on the charts of Options 1,2,4 and 5.

Zooming in, we're looking for a 5 wave move up from the 1065.25 low marked on those charts. On the single zig zag count, this would likely be wave (iii) of [c] of 2 (using the degrees shown on the Option 3 chart). On the double zig zag, this would likely complete wave [C] of the second zig zag and, therefore, would probably be the end of the correction from 1 July.

Here's the updated chart of the count of 5 waves up from 1065.25 from last night:

On Options 1, 2, 4 and 5, the decline from today's high could either be the start of the 3rd of a 3rd that we're looking for on those bearish Options, or its simply part of the 3rd wave of 5 up from 1065.25, so we would still have a few more ups and downs to go before we top. To rule out the latter we need to take out 1096.38 without making a new high.

On Option 3, the decline from today's high would probably be wave (iv) of [c], so any new high from here could well be the high of minor wave 2. If we take out 1088.96 before making a new high, then the decline from today's high can't be wave (iv) and so we may well have topped in minor 2, perhaps because the double zig zag was playing out on this chart rather than the single zig zag. 

The risk on this single zig zag count is that those 5 waves up from 1065.25 may only be wave i of (iii) - we need to take out 1065.25 to avoid that.