The Options shown in the 10 min charts below are the different ways to count the move down from 1219.80. There are 5 that I'm following and you can see the larger context of each on the 60 min counts page.
Options 1, 2, 4 and 5 imply that the rally from the 1 July low is correcting the decline from 1131.23 only, so will be invalidated above 1131.23. On the count on the chart of Option 3 that rally is correcting the whole decline from 1219.80, not just the decline from 1131.23.
On the charts of Options 1, 2, 4 and 5 I have labelled a double zig zag count from the 1 July low ay 1010.91.
If its complete at yesterday's high, then for Options 1 and 2 we would now be about to start a 3rd of a 3rd wave down at various degrees - both very bearish. For Option 4, we would be about to start wave (iii) of [c] of minor Y down - temporarily bearish. For Option 5, we would be about to start (iii) of [c] of minor Y down - again, temporarily bearish.
On the chart of Option 3 I've labelled a single zig zag which would be minute [c] of minor 2 up. It does not yet look complete. However, note, the double zig zag count could also be applied here since that has retraced a sufficient amount of the decline from 1219.80 to be a minor 2 correction of that drop. If that completed yesterday and we apply it to the chart of Option 3, it means that we should be starting minor 3 down now.
Here's how things stand after today:
Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23
10 min chart:
Five waves down from 1131.23 on this Option represents wave i of (iii) of [iii] of minor 1. The double zig zag I have labelled from the 1010.91 low would be wave ii of (iii), so implies that we would be in wave iii of (iii) once the correction of the decline from 1131.23 is complete.
Its possible to count the double zig zag as complete at yesterday's high. At that level, [Y] is about .70.7 x [W]. Also, within [Y], wave (C) is just over 1.618 x wave (A). Also, its about a .886% retracment of the decline from 1131.23.
However, we may only be in wave 4 of (3) within the second zig zag. If wave ii is not complete, then the level to watch remains 1131.23 on any further rally. Exceeding that level will invalidate the count (though it won't preclude a continuing correction in wave (ii) - see the commentary on the 60 min counts page).
This 1 min chart shows the two possibilities. It shows the [C] wave of the second zig zag which started at the 1065.25 low (please note that the degree of the labels relates to Option 2):
SPX 1 min - (1)-(2)-1-2 down from 1020.95 or wave 4 of (3) of [C] of second zig zag:
And here's a close up of the move from yesterday's high at 1020.95, assuming that the double zig zag completed there:
SPX 1 min - close up of decline from 1020.95, assuming a complete double zig zag:
If we are still in wave (3) of [C], then please refer to the 1 min charts shown under Option 3 below which show how wave 4 of (3) may be counted.
If we're in this count showing nested ones and twos down, the first sign of trouble for the count would be taking out the wave 2 high at 1112.41 before we see 5 waves down to complete wave 3 of (3). If we then go on to take out the wave (2) high at 1116.05, that may be a further sign that further upside above 1020.95 may be on the cards, though it may still be possible that wave (2) is just forming an expanded flat type correction.
Looking to the downside, the main level to watch is initially 1096.38. If that is taken out before we make a new high, it will rule out the wave 4 of (3) count. After that, there is the low at 1065.25. If that is taken out, the chances are good that the corrective move is over. Until then, the risk remains that any declines will simply be a precursor to new highs.
Five waves down from 1131.23 on this Option represents wave i of (iii) of [iii] of minor 1. The double zig zag I have labelled from the 1010.91 low would be wave ii of (iii), so implies that we would be in wave iii of (iii) once the correction of the decline from 1131.23 is complete.
Its possible to count the double zig zag as complete at yesterday's high. At that level, [Y] is about .70.7 x [W]. Also, within [Y], wave (C) is just over 1.618 x wave (A). Also, its about a .886% retracment of the decline from 1131.23.
However, we may only be in wave 4 of (3) within the second zig zag. If wave ii is not complete, then the level to watch remains 1131.23 on any further rally. Exceeding that level will invalidate the count (though it won't preclude a continuing correction in wave (ii) - see the commentary on the 60 min counts page).
This 1 min chart shows the two possibilities. It shows the [C] wave of the second zig zag which started at the 1065.25 low (please note that the degree of the labels relates to Option 2):
SPX 1 min - (1)-(2)-1-2 down from 1020.95 or wave 4 of (3) of [C] of second zig zag:
And here's a close up of the move from yesterday's high at 1020.95, assuming that the double zig zag completed there:
SPX 1 min - close up of decline from 1020.95, assuming a complete double zig zag:
If we are still in wave (3) of [C], then please refer to the 1 min charts shown under Option 3 below which show how wave 4 of (3) may be counted.
If we're in this count showing nested ones and twos down, the first sign of trouble for the count would be taking out the wave 2 high at 1112.41 before we see 5 waves down to complete wave 3 of (3). If we then go on to take out the wave (2) high at 1116.05, that may be a further sign that further upside above 1020.95 may be on the cards, though it may still be possible that wave (2) is just forming an expanded flat type correction.
Looking to the downside, the main level to watch is initially 1096.38. If that is taken out before we make a new high, it will rule out the wave 4 of (3) count. After that, there is the low at 1065.25. If that is taken out, the chances are good that the corrective move is over. Until then, the risk remains that any declines will simply be a precursor to new highs.
Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23
10 min chart:
For this Option, five waves down from 1131.23 represents wave (i) of [iii] of minor 1 down. The double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [iii], so, assuming its complete, we would be about to start wave (iii) of [iii] down.
This is the same labelling as on the chart of Option 1 for the rally from 1 July (although the wave degrees are different), so please refer to the comments and 1 min charts posted under that Option.
For this Option, five waves down from 1131.23 represents wave (i) of [iii] of minor 1 down. The double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [iii], so, assuming its complete, we would be about to start wave (iii) of [iii] down.
This is the same labelling as on the chart of Option 1 for the rally from 1 July (although the wave degrees are different), so please refer to the comments and 1 min charts posted under that Option.
Option 3 - Ending diagonal complete at 1010.91
10 min chart:
For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 to 1010.91 would be wave [v] of a leading diagonal down from 1219.80 and, therefore, minor wave 1.
It places us now in minute [c] of minor wave 2 up.
It remains to be seen whether we completed wave (iii) of [c] at yesterday's high or only wave i of (iii) of [c]. Here's the chart from the [b] wave low:
SPX 1 min - wave [c] of minor 2 from the [b] wave low at 1056.88:
And here's a close up of the action from yesterday's high:
SPX 1 min - wave (iv) of [c] or wave ii of (iii) of [c]:
If we completed wave (iii) and are now in a wave (iv) pullback we have to stay above 1088.96. If its only wave i of (iii), then we have to stay above 1065.25 on this pullback in wave ii of (iii). These are the levels to watch to rule out one or other of the counts.
As mentioned above, its possible to apply the double zig zag count to this Option given how far that has retraced. If we do that and that double zig zag is complete at yesterday's high, then minor 2 should be over and we should now be starting minor 3 down.
It places us now in minute [c] of minor wave 2 up.
It remains to be seen whether we completed wave (iii) of [c] at yesterday's high or only wave i of (iii) of [c]. Here's the chart from the [b] wave low:
SPX 1 min - wave [c] of minor 2 from the [b] wave low at 1056.88:
And here's a close up of the action from yesterday's high:
SPX 1 min - wave (iv) of [c] or wave ii of (iii) of [c]:
If we completed wave (iii) and are now in a wave (iv) pullback we have to stay above 1088.96. If its only wave i of (iii), then we have to stay above 1065.25 on this pullback in wave ii of (iii). These are the levels to watch to rule out one or other of the counts.
As mentioned above, its possible to apply the double zig zag count to this Option given how far that has retraced. If we do that and that double zig zag is complete at yesterday's high, then minor 2 should be over and we should now be starting minor 3 down.
Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate (X) topped at 1131.23
10 min chart:
For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 would be wave (i) of [c] of minor Y and the double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [c].
For this Option, 5 waves down from 1131.23 would be wave (i) of [c] of minor Y and the double zig zag up from 1010.91 would be wave (ii) of [c].
However, as mentioned previously, counting a complete 5 waves down to 1010.91 does bring in the possibility that wave [c] of Y is done so we have also completed intermediate wave (X) - see the 60 min counts page. That would put us now in a minor wave A rally and eventually take us to new highs. If wave (X) did end at 1010.91, then, looking at the chart of Option 3, the high marked [a] would be wave [i] of A and the low marked [b] would be wave [ii] of A - see the bullish alternate chart for Option 4 on the 60 min counts page.
For the moment, I've assumed we are completing a double zig zag for wave (ii) of [c], if it is not already complete at yesterday's high. Please refer to the comments and 1 min charts posted under Option 1 above.
If we take out 1131.23, then the bullish possibility mentioned above is likely to be playing out, assuming Option 4 is the correct count on the bigger picture.
Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave (X) topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down
10 min chart:
On this Option, 5 waves down to 1010.91 would be wave [a] of minor Y down and the retracement would be wave [b]. If its over, we would now be headed down again in wave [c] to complete minor Y.
This is the same double zig zag shown for Options 1, 2 and 4, so please see the comments and 1 min charts posted under Option 1 above.
On this Option, 5 waves down to 1010.91 would be wave [a] of minor Y down and the retracement would be wave [b]. If its over, we would now be headed down again in wave [c] to complete minor Y.
This is the same double zig zag shown for Options 1, 2 and 4, so please see the comments and 1 min charts posted under Option 1 above.
