Wednesday, 28 July 2010

13:55 BST - SPX Update: Interesting fib stuff

This is the updated chart that I posted at the weekend with some fib stuff relating to both time and price on 60 min chart of SPX:

SPX 60 min - fib time and price:

According to my calculations, with esignal using 7 hourly bars per day, 144 bars from the 1 July low hits some time today. You might recall that in the rally marked wave (ii), the rally lasted 145 bars, so it would produce a certain symmetry to see this wave ii rally end around the same sort of period.

Also, you might recall that the first leg of the wave (ii) rally was 65 points and the second leg was 89 points. On this wave ii rally, the first leg was 89 points and we have, so far, reached 64 points for the second leg. Again, it would be a nice symmetry of sorts to see yesterday's high end the rally from the 1 July low for this reason.

Whether or not it does, depends of course, on the wave count. One of the counts I have for the move up from the 1 July low suggests that the rally completed yesterday (see the first 1 min chart at the end of last night's update)  However, its by no means certain as you can see from the alternate count shown on that chart and also the count shown on the second 1 min chart at the end of that update.

So, we'll have to wait and see if this fib stuff plays out. While its all very interesting, more important, of course, will be to watch the important levels on the upside and the downside (see last night's update for some that I'm watching) to give us a clue as to near term direction.