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Thursday, 8 July 2010

11:35 BST - SPX and ES Update

In last night's Update I showed a double zig zag count for the move up from 1010.91. On that count, we'd be looking for 5 waves up from the low marked [B] at 1039.93. My labels showed a complete 5 from that level, but the alternative is that we are only in the 3rd wave of 5 to complete wave [C] of the second zig zag.

An alternative is a single zig zag from the 1 July low which puts us well into wave [C] to complete the zig zag. Here it is on a 1 min chart:

SPX 1 min chart - single zig zag from 1 July low:



Obviously, on this count, we need to see 5 waves up from the [B] wave low at 1018.35, whereas the double zig zag count requires 5 waves up from the [B] wave low at 1039.91. If, on the double zig zag count, we're only in the 3rd wave of 5 a wave move, there could be quite alot more potential upside to go if the 3rd wave extends as it probably should. The single zig zag count anticipates less upside.

The single zig zag count is what I have now labelled on the futures also. Here it is on a 5 min chart:

ES 5 min chart: