Menu

Thursday 8 July 2010

11:01 BST - SPX Update

I've re-labelled the chart of Option 3 - this has us either having completed a leading diagonal down from 1219.80 at the low of 1010.91, or, as you will see from the chart below, still in wave [v], which is forming a zig zag:

SPX 10 min chart Option 3: Leading Diagonal From 1219.80:


I've applied Count 1 (see last nights SPX Update) to the chart, which shows a complete 5 waves down from 1131.23 at the 1 July low. This would either be wave [v] of the leading diagonal, completing minor wave 1 down, or it would be wave (a) of wave [v], putting us now in the (b) wave. If the latter is correct, remember that we have to stay above 999.83 in wave [v] for the leading diagonal to remain valid.

The Dow and the Nasdaq Comp can also be counted in the same way from their April highs.

And here is the way I would count the rise from the 1 July low if we have started a minor wave 2 rally (if it s a (b) wave within wave [v], then the corrective counts shown on the charts of the other Options (see last night's Update) would apply):

SPX 1 min chart - Impulse form 1 July low:


Obviously, the 1 July low at 1010.91 is crucial to the validity of this count, but an early indication that it may be wrong may come if we take out the high of wave (1) of [3] at 1045.37 without completing 5 waves up from the low marked [2].