Wednesday, 23 June 2010

13:44 BST - ES Update

The position in the futures is essentially the same as for the cash - uncertainty as to whether there is further upside above the high made on 21 June, or whether we have started a significant decline. 

Here is a chart showing the bearish count, but with the bullish alternative as well.

ES 5 min chart:

On the bearish side, the invalidation point has to be the high marked (ii) on the chart. On the bullish side, the invaildation point is much lower down, at the low on 25 May (although then, it may be that the rally to the June high will have completed an X wave, if the decline into 25 May was a zig zag on the bullish case).