Friday, 19 November 2010

19:30 GMT - SPX Update

The bearish count remains valid as labelled for the time being. The labelled count will be negated above 1199.36, but the possibility of a [1]-[2]-(1)-(2) will remain until we exceed the high at 1207.43 (I'd be labelling it as a double zig zag as shown on the chart of the bullish counts below). If the labelled count is to remain valid, we really need to start declining soon:

SPX 1 min - bear count:

For the bullish counts, all are still on the table, though the alternate (that we're in a i-ii for wave (c) down) is, like the bearish count, just about hanging on. Its invalidation point is the same as on the bearish count:

SPX 1 min - bullish count:

If we make a new high above 1200.29, that would give us  what looks like 5 waves up from 1173 and would make the further alternate (see the pink note) that 1173 was wave (iv) of [iii] start to look like more of a possibility, though it may be that we're just seeing a 5 wave wave a of (x) instead of the double zig zag I've labelled for it currently.

As I said in yesterday's end of day update, while we're above 1183.56, more upside is the most likely outcome. However, now, taking out today's low in an impulsive manner could be an initial sign that the bearish case may be gaining strength.