Friday, 3 September 2010

16:39 BST - SPX Update: Update on the bullish counts

Here's an update on the bullish counts I've been following (last update can be read here). For the context of these counts, please see the 60 min counts page.

Chart 1 - 60 min - single zig zag from 1010.91 still in progress:

This count currently has us in wave (i) of [c] of minor 2. 

Here's a close up of this count, picking up the above chart from the low at 1039.83 on 25 August:

SPX 1 min - from 1039.83 low: 

It looks like we need another up leg to complete wave iii of (i) of [c], but its quite possible that it topped at today's current high. If  so, we're in wave iv of (i) of [c] now and we have to stay above the wave i high at 1065.21. Taking that out without a new high above 1105.10 will invalidate the labelled count. 

However, it may just mean that we saw the wave (i) high at 1105.10 and does not invalidate the count from the wave [b] low altogether. The level at which this count is invalidated if the assumption is that we've started wave [c] up, is 1039.70.

If this count is playing out and wave [c] is to equal wave [a], a target for the end of wave [c] would be about 1158.

Chart 2: 60 min first bullish count under Option 4 - impulse up from 1010.91:

Chart 3: 60 min - second bullish count under Option 4 - leading diagonal up from 1010.91:

The counts shown on charts 2 and 3 above now need us to stay above 1040.88 for the count as labelled to remain valid (of course, it possible that wave [ii] bottomed at 1039.70, not 1040.88, in which case, that would be the relevant level to watch).