Friday, 12 November 2010

17:31 GMT - SPX Update

The subdividing wave (5) that I suggested in the last post does now appear to be the most likely count on the bear case:

SPX 1 min close up:

The bullish count labelled as the alternate on the above chart is getting more and more unlikely even though it won't be invalidated unless we take out 1194.53. However, I'm inclined to consider it out at this stage. Still, its not all bearish - for the bull case, I'd put us in wave (iv) as shown on this 60 mim chart of the bullish case:

SPX 60 min bullish count - Option 3:

The further we drop away from the blue channel the more likely it becomes that we completed 5 waves up from the August low at 1227.08, as shown by the alternate label at that high on the 60 min chart. You can also see more information on that count on Chart 3 on the 60 min counts page. That page also lists various ways to interpret the completion of those 5 waves under Option 3 and the levels that might be important in determining which might be playing out.