Wednesday, 17 November 2010

16:07 GMT - SPX Update

At the moment, its unclear whether we've made a wave (1) low on the bearish count or whether we're still in wave 4 of (1):

SPX 1 min - bear count:

So far, we've got 3 waves up from the low that I've labelled as wave (1) of [3]. We've only retraced about 38.2% of wave (1) and if that remains the case, I'd be inclined to consider today's move up as part of wave 4 of (1) rather than as wave (2) of [3].

For the bullish count, its the same isse, whether we've bottomed in wave (c) of [iv] (or wave (w) of [iv]), or whether we still have a further low to come:

SPX 1 min - bullish count:

If we see 5 waves down from today's high, then I think that today's high is more likely to have been a 4th wave on these counts. If we see 3 waves down, even if it takes out 1173, we could well be seeing an expanded correction in progress for wave (2) of [3] on the bearish count or part of wave (x) on the alternate bullish count (which would mean that 1173 was a wave (w) not (c) on the bullish count).

While we're above yesterday's low, the chances are that we'll see more upside in wave (2) on the bear count and in at least a wave (x) on the bullish count.