Wednesday, 10 November 2010

15:37 GMT - SPX Update

For the move down from yesterday's high, I'll stick with the count I showed on Chart 4 in yesterday's end of day update for the moment for the main and alternate counts. Here it is updated:

SPX 1 min - close up:

The main count is very bearish, but you'll see I've added another possibility, that we're currently in wave 3 of (3) down and possibly nearing an end to it (it may have ended at today's low of 1204.33). On this alternate bear count, once wave 3 is completed, we'd need to see the next rally for wave 4 hold below the low at 1218.95 which would be wave 1 on the alternate bear count.

If the main bear count is playing out, I'd like to see wave iii of 3 become at least a 1.382 extension of wave i. That would take it to about 1200. Currently, its about equal to wave i.

The alternate labelling for the bullish case which puts us in wave [4] down is still valid. On my count, we have to drop below 1194.53 to invalidate it. Its currently retraced about 50% of wave [3]. The lower it goes, the less likely it may become, even though not invalidated.