Friday, 8 October 2010

19:13 BST - SPX Update - the 60 min may be starting to show signs of a top

There are some nice divergences in the technical indicators on the 60 min chart that hint at a top for the rally from the August low being not too far off - they do look like they're starting to roll over:

SPX 60 min:

Now we just need some bearish price action which is also confirmed by these indicators moving to bearish levels: RSI to 30, CCI to -100, MACD and its histogram below zero, -DI above the +DI and the ADX above 25 indicating a strong downtrend (its interesting that the rally from the October low didn't push the ADX above 25 - that suggests underlying weakness to me).

A move down in price that doesn't have this effect on the indicators is likely a warning that the decline is just a correction. Equally, price moving sideways while these indicators move to bearish levels is also likely to be a warning of more upside to come.