Tuesday, 5 October 2010

17:22 BST - SPX Update: Near term bullish count wins, but have we topped?

Taking out the high at 1157.16 means that the near term bullish count that I've been showing is playing out. Here it is on the overall bearish Option (Option 1 on the 60 min counts page) showing a count for 5 waves up from that wave (iv) low at today's high:

SPX 1 min - near term bullish count: topped?:

And here's a closer look:

SPX 1 min - near term bullish count close up:

Obviously, if we take out the high at 1158.82 then we haven't yet topped. I can certainly see a count from the wave iv of (v) low that would suggest another high is needed to complete wave v of (v), so this current decline from 1158.82 would only be wave [4] of v.

If we have topped, or once we do, we'll have to see how the retracement behaves to gauge whether or not its the end of the rally from the August low or whether the 5 waves up from the low labelled (iv) at 1131.87 is just the first of a larger impulse from that low. At 1158.82, wave (v) is equal to wave (i) so its possible that the rally from 1131.87 is the whole of wave (v).