Wednesday, 6 October 2010

15:36 BST - SPX Update - possible bearish count for the move off yesterday's high, but its low odds currently

We took out the first level I was watching to the downside (see yesterday's end of day update), at 1159.11, but didn't do it in a 5 wave impulse. So, in my view, it remains open whether or not we saw a top to the rally from the August low at yesterday's high. 

For the moment, here's how I'd count it if a top is in, but bear in mind, we could still be in wave [4] of v of (v) or some variation of this count since I don't think we've seen the type of price behaviour I described in yesterday's end of day update:

SPX 1 min - top in at 1162.76?

If a top is in then I don't think we should have any difficulty taking out the other two downside levels I mentioned in yesterday's end of day update, 1152.50 and 1149.21. If we can't take out those levels in an impulsive move, then I'm going to be thinking there may be further upside to come (which may involve some re-labelling). So, until those levels go, there's a high risk of further upside in my view.