The chances may be increasing that this count, from Chart 2 in yesterday's end of day update, may be what we have seen playing out from the August low:
SPX 60 min - 5 waves up from August low possibly complete at 1185.53:
This shows the count as if Option 3 from the 60 min counts page is playing out, so this would be a temporary high. If Options 1 or 2 on the 60 min counts page is playing out, its a more bearish top.
Here's a close up:
SPX 1 min - possible end of 5 waves up from August low:
To be honest, however, with the market having been so strong recently, I think we need to be wary that this drop today may be wave [C] of an expanded flat wave iv. The argument against this would be that on my labelling, we had a running flat for wave ii, so if this is an expanded flat for wave iv, there's no alternation. However, alternation is only a guideline, so I think this risk is something to keep in mind.
Clearly, if we've seen a top at 1185.53, we have to stay below that high in any retracement, so that's the level to watch to the upside.
If this is still part of wave iv, then it has to stay above the wave i high at 1163.87, so that's the level to watch to the downside.
