Saturday, 9 October 2010

12:47 BST - SPX Update on the cycles from the March 2000 high

Here's an update on the chart of two cycles I look at which eminate from the March 2000 high (the original post on this can be found by clicking here):

SPX Cycles from the March 2000 high:

As you can see, the turn that was expected around the 22/23 September became a turn back up as price move down into 23 September but then gapped up the following day. The gap up was the signal that all was not well with the move down that had started on 21 September since on 23 September we closed near the low of the day - the gap up was a significant failure to follow through on that bearish close. You'll note how the same thing happened at the next red cycle date on 1 October which may also have been a reversal down date. The next trading day, however, price gapped up.

We're now approaching the next turn period which falls between 12 and 14 October (the next red and grey cycle lines , respectively). Again, as emphasised previously, price action is key - bearish bars should follow through; if they don't, its a warning that should be heeded, especially since the trend remains up at this stage.

I've marked on the charts the pivots I'm watching at the moment. If the market is to make a significant turn down, these three pivots should be taken out without any difficulty. A failure to do so will suggest that further upside may be on the cards.