Wednesday, 20 October 2010

11:45 BST - FTSE Update

If FTSE put in an important top in April, its going to have to start dropping pretty much now. Here's an updated count showing how the move since the April high may be counted - the main labelling is the bearish view, with the alternate labelling showing the bullish view:

FTSE Daily:

So far, wave [ii] on the bearish count has just exceeded a 78.6% retracement of wave [i] down.

You can see that I've labelled the move up from 5070.94 as a diagonal. On the bearish count, its an  ending diagonal for wave c of (y) of [ii]. On the bullish count it would be a leading diagonal, so it can't be wave 3, so it would have to be wave [i] of 3 - that's very bullish and means that this bullish count, on this labelling, won't be invalidated unless we drop below 5070.94.

Here's a closer look:

FTSE 60 min:

This shows only the bearish count, but the following comment on the diagonal applies equally to the bullish count.  I've labelled the diagonal from 5070.94 as complete, but we may still be in wave [5]. It can't exceed 5833.1 if its to remain shorter than wave [3] as required by the rules. In theory, wave [5] could, therefore, reach its maximum level and still not eliminate the bearish count since the April high is 5833.73.

Here's an even closer look:

FTSE 5 min:

Again, I've only labelled the bearish count. 

It looks like a diagonal down from the high at 5761.93, although I could just as easily label it as an impulse down to where I have wave (1) of the diagonal, followed by an expanded flat wave (2), with today's rally being the C wave of wave (2).

If we take out the high labelled [ii], that would mean that the diagonal is still in progress or something more bullish is developing.

Taking out the wave [4] low of the diagonal at 5597.46 would mean that the diagonal is complete on this labelleing, though it won't seal the bear case since even on the bullish count, a pullback (in wave [ii] of 3) is called for. As mentioned above, we'd really have to drop below 5070.94 to start thinking that the bullish case may not be viable.

So, taking out 5770.92 would suggest more potential upside and the bullish case might then be the focus. However, the bear case isn't invalidated unless we take out 5833.73. Taking out 5833.1 invalidates the diagonal from the 5070.94 low and would increase the likelihood that the bullish count is playing out. Dropping below 5597.46 would suggest we could see more downside, but it may only be a corrective wave [ii] on the bullish count. We'd have to drop below 5070.94 to rule that out. Dropping below today's low at 5680.43 would be a the first step in a larger down move.