Saturday, 2 October 2010

11:04 BST Dollar Update

The dollar is starting to look again like its completing 5 waves down from the high I have labelled as wave B on the overall bullish count. Here it is in the 80 min chart showing the move down from the June high.

Dollar 80 min:

At the low on Friday, wave C is about .618 x wave A.

Here's a closer look from the high labelled B:

Dollar 60 min:

Obviously, in a strong downtrend as we've seen in the dollar over the last few months, its always going to be difficult to identify the end of the move. We can only label it as best we can to find potential high probability turning points and see if it holds.

Here's an even closer look from the high labelled (iv) within the wave I'm labelling as wave [v] of C:

Dollar 5 min:

As you can see from this chart, I think we need a move up in wave iv and then a further decline in wave v to complete wave (v) of [v] of C. However, it is possible to count wave (v) of [v] complete or just about complete at Friday's low, as you can see from the alternate labelling.

Non-one knows, of course, if we've bottomed. We just need to see some price action that might suggest a low is in place (I'm assuming that the overall bullish count is playing out).

As I've said many times before, the initial sign of a low will be a strong impulsive 5 wave move up followed by a 3 wave pullback that stays above the low. We then need a further 5 waves up that holds above the high of the first 5 waves up. Its been at this point that previous potential impulse moves up have failed - they've failed to hold above the high of the first 5 waves up. This has been the warning that further downside was possible because it has meant that we're left with either a 3 wave move up (obviously, corrective) or a potential one-two-one-two count forming. In a downtrend as we've seen, its better to give the benfit of the doubt to the downside in this situation.

So, for the moment, I'm assuming that the next bounce will be wave iv of (v) of [v]. However, if we were to take out the wave i of (v) low at 78.703 I'd have to start thinking that the alternate labelling is playing out and that Friday's low may have marked the end of wave C.