Wednesday, 1 September 2010

20:00 BST - SPX Update: 1 min close up - possible count for today's rally

Here's an attempt to count the move up today, starting with the low on 27 August at 1039.70 which I have as wave [1] of iii (or wave i  - not shown on this chart) on the bearish counts (see my earlier post):

SPX 1 min close up:

In yesterday's end of day update, I had the wave [2] (or ii) labelled as either an (A)-(B)-(C) or a (W)-(X)-(Y) correction. The difference between them is that if its the former, we need 5 waves up from wave (B) to complete wave (C). If its the latter we only need 3 waves up from wave (X) to complete wave (Y).

As you can see from the chart, if its a (W)-(X)-(Y) correction, we may already have a top at 1080. If its an (A)-(B)-(C) correction, we probably need another high before its done.

Unfortunately, there's no way to tell which is the correct count. The only solution is that if you were short, you'd probably want to be out above today's high to be on the safe side, unless you're willing to sit through a 5th wave that could get up to the 78.6% retracement level at about 1087, assuming that we're in wave [2] and not ii (if its wave ii, the upside is much greater).