Thursday, 2 September 2010

19:52 BST - SPX Update: 1 min chart - possible top for wave [2]?

Well, its possible that the new high at 1087.53 marks the end (or nearly the end) of wave 5 of (C), though I have to say, that wave iv of 5 went on a bit when compared to wave ii:

SPX 1 min - i-ii-[1]-[2] from 1129.24 high, close up from 27 August:

You can see the alternate noted on the chart, that we've only completed wave i of wave 5 of (C). This arises only because of the size of wave iv against wave ii of 5 on the labelling I've shown. Its a risk that has to be factored in, in my view.

If we've topped, or nearly topped in wave (C), we need to start dropping impulsively and take out the 1076.20 low. Until we do that, the possibility of an extending wave 5 will continue to loom.

As mentioned before, it would be nice if wave [2] were to top here at the 78.6% retracement of wave [1] and with wave 5 being a .786 extension of wave 1 of (C). In addition, timewise, wave [2] is now just about .618 x wave [1] in terms of time (.786 is the square root of .618). All very interesting, but price action now needs to show us that a top is in. At the time of posting, I can't say its convincing me as yet.