Thursday, 23 September 2010

17:35 BST - SPX Update: 60 min time and price chart

Just looking at the 60 min time and price chart, it doesn't seem to be over for the immediately bearish case - well, not just yet. Although the rally from today's low has appeared pretty strong, we're still in the lower half of the channel drawn through the time and price lines and below the last Gann price level that price broke down from yesterday (its at about 1138):

SPX 60 min time and price chart:

Now, on the bullish count, it doesn't mean that we won't just continue to crawl up the underside of the midline of the channel to make wave [5], but if it does that, it would probably be a clue that such a rally is likely terminal.

So far, the indicators don't seem overly impressed with the move from the low. The RSI and CCI look like they're just retesting the 50 and +100 lines from which they broke down. The MACD may be turning up, but if so, its doing it very slowly. The histogram is making higher lows within the current trough but is yet to turn positive. The stochastic has moved up from oversold, but hasn't, so far, been able to reach the 50 line.

Of course, all of this can change and the indicators can start behaving more bullishly if we just continue to rally. So, we can only watch the price levels that the move so far suggests should be important to the bullish or bearish counts and wait for price action to confirm which of the two is playing out. On my counts (see the last post) I'm watching 1127.66 and, of course, taking out the high at 1144.38 will void my bearish count.