Thursday, 30 September 2010

16:26 BST - Dollar Update

On the overall bullish count which has us currently in a wave (2) decline in the dollar, we've just about reached the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the June high and the point where wave C is .618 x wave A:

Dollar 80 min from June 2010 high:

Coupled with the above, there's a not unreasonable count for a complete 5 waves down from the high labelled B. Here's a closer look:

Dollar 60 min from B wave high at 83.522:

However, remember, the trend is firmly down. Until we see something clearly impulsive to the upside, the risk of further declines remains - we may have more to go in wave (v) of [v] of C or, perhaps we may only have seen the first wave of wave [v] within C, for example. The latter isn't ruled out until we take out the wave [iv] high at 80.259.

So, the low at 78.414 is critical to this labelling showing wave C of (2) as complete and the labelling has to be tentative until we see some price action that is decidely bullish (don't forget, there are more bearish potential counts - see the dollar page).