Wednesday, 18 August 2010

19:37 BST - SPX Update: 1 min close up - revised bearish count

The bullish counts are looking very good at the moment - see earlier post here - but for the bear case, there's still hope. 

Although we haven't so far taken out yesterday's high, this can only be said of SPX and the Dow; the Nasdaq Comp, NDX, RUT and TRAN have taken out those highs. It may be the case that SPX and the Dow are leading the way down in a (1)-(2), but since they got so close to taking out that high, if we are at a corrective top, it may be better to treat their failure to take it out as a bearish divergence against this other indices that have done so. 

So, with a re-adjustment of the labels, here's a single zig zag count for SPX which shows the rally today as wave [C] of the zig zag, with a possible truncation, in that it is failing to get above the high of wave [A]:

SPX 1 min close up:

I've shown a top at today's current high, but it may be premature and we may still be in wave 4 of (5), with a new high on SPX (and/or in the Dow) to come.
I've left on the possible double zig zag labels because if we're in a double zig zag, I'd have to count today's rally as wave (A) of [Y], in which case, we'd have a further high to come once we've had a (B) wave pullback.