Friday, 27 August 2010

16:43 BST - SPX Update: One of the slighlty more bullish counts under the overall bearish one may be playing out here

I've posted a couple of possible counts for today's move based on the main bearish count  - for details of the main bearish count see the 1st and 2nd charts in yesterday's end of day update. But it may be that we see rather more possible upside if one of the alternates is playing out - see the 3rd chart in yesterday's end of day update. Here's the chart of the alternates showing an expanded flat for wave [2] and retracement levels (but it could be wave ii which could go higher as explained in that update):

SPX 1 min - Alternate counts for decline from 1129.24:

I can't say for certain of course, but it seems less likely that the bullish counts (see here) are playing out at this stage since the move down from 1061.45 to below 1039.83 needed to be 5 waves even for those counts , in order to complete wave (c) or [c] in their corrections down.  I think its very difficult to see 5 waves down from that high without wave 1 - 4 overlap. So, I think the balance of the evidence seems to be that the move down from 1061.45 is part of a correction, not the end of an impulse (whether a wave iii  or [1] or i on the bearish counts or a (c) or [c] wave on the bullish counts). Well, that's my view.