Monday, 30 August 2010

16:27 BST - SPX Update: 1 min charts of the bearish counts

This is the count shown in chart 4 from Friday's end of day update, looking at it from the 1081.58 high:

SPX 1 min - i-ii-[1]-[2]-[3]-[4] from 1129.24:

The count is still valid, but note that wave [4] could be at the 1061.45 high as discussed in my update on Saturday, so we'd now be in wave iv, not [4].

Taking out today's low would increase the odds of the (1)-(2)-1-2 shown from Friday's high, or we could be seeing a leading diagonal forming from that high, with what I've labelled as wave 2 being the 2nd wave of the diagonal. The wave 2 and (2) highs would be invalidation points for the ones and twos count. Moving above the wave 2 high without a lower low would likely invalidate the diagonal count.

The slightly more bullish counts shown on chart 6 in Friday's end of day update, but with a wave [1] or i bottom on Friday (based on the count shown on Saturday) also remain in play, however:

SPX 1 min - i-ii-[1]-[2] or 1 down from 1129.24:

This assumes that the decline from Friday's high is only part of the upward move from Friday's low. I've labelled it as wave (B) to today's low, but it could just be wave W within (B) as noted, so more downside here doesn't make this count any less likely than the immediately bearish one above. That might change of we take out Friday's low.