Friday, 13 August 2010

13:20 BST - Dollar update

I'm not sure if this count is right, but it behaved like a 4th wave would be expected to behave, so I'll stick with it for the moment:

Dollar 20 min:

If its correct, we should be starting wave v up. Of course, its possible that the 3 wave move labelled iv is only part of an expanded flat correction being formed, in which case we might come right back down again. Wave iv only retraced 23.6% of wave ii, so this can't be ruled out.

Its also possible that the high labelled iii is actually wave i or wave (i), in which case, we probably would see an expanded flat for wave ii or (ii), with the [C] or c wave likely to take out the low that I've labelled iv on the above chart.

We've just ticked above the high of wave iii, with what what could be 5 a  wave move,  so if the chart is correctly labelled, in elliott wave terms, we've done enough to complete wave v, so this rally may be short-lived.  

However, if we're going to get a decent sized wave v, we might expect at least a .618 extension of wave i, which would take it to about 83.076., but if the rally from the low labelled iv is only wave  [1] of 5, we're probably headed higher than that, maybe to where [5] would equal [1] at about 83.630.

For the moment, I have my eye on that wave iv low at 82.182. Taking it out might suggest more downside before we can head higher.