Saturday, 14 August 2010

10:33 BST SPX - 60 min counts page updated

I've updated the 60 min counts page.

You can see even on the 60 min charts that if we're in an impulse wave down from 1129.24, it would certainly look better and be a more obvious 5 waves if we could get one more leg down to below 1176.69.

Getting 5 waves down is crucial to the bear case. Without it, the bear case is likely to be off the table for at least a short time, because 3 waves would mean a correction only (that is, a correction of the prior move which was up) and imply more upside to come. 

If we don't drop below 1176.69 on Monday and instead move up, we've only got 3 legs down visible on the 60 min timeframe. Now, if this happens, it may be we're still in the 4th wave of an impulse down, or it may be we have a [1]-[2]-(1) down and a move up on Monday would be wave (2) (see Friday's end of day update for the levels to watch that would invalidated those possibilities). 

So a move up on Monday wouldn't necessarily mean that the bear case is out for the time being. However, it would be sensible to have this possibility in mind and just keep an eye on those levels that I mentioned yesterday that would eliminate the bearish counts for the move down from 1129.24.